There are a number are individual areas to look at in the new structure of rugby league. We aim between now and the end of the season to bring you a comprehensive look into all of these.
We're going to start with one that is fully confirmed and finalised, no outstanding questions or gaps to be filled in. That is the Challenge Cup.
This was the RFL Q&A on this topic:
Q. How will the new structure impact on the Challenge Cup?
A. The 2015 Challenge Cup will be aligned to the new competition structure with the main change being that the eight clubs contesting the Super League play-offs in 2014 (and Super 8s from 2015 onwards) will enter the Challenge Cup at the sixth round stage.
The 14 League 1 teams will enter at the third round stage, joining the 10 survivors from the 40 clubs invited to participate from the first round (12 ties)
The 12 Championship clubs will then enter in Round 4, joining the 12 third round winners (12 ties).
The bottom four Super League teams enter in Round 5, joining the 12 fourth round winners (eight ties).
The top eight Super League teams enter in Round 6, joining the eight fifth round winners (eight ties)
The sixth round is followed by the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final at Wembley Stadium.
On the face of it, this means the Cup will have one more round than we are used to but the top clubs will face one less game in their run to Wembley. That at least is the simplified version of what the change means, clearly the rounds have been reshuffled a lot for this change.
Mark's opinion is that this is a good change. The reason being, the new league structure increases the amount of games most teams will play but this change potentially reduces the amount of games our to teams will play - let's face it, the trophy hasn't been won by a side who aren't one of the best for some time. The top teams feature the top players, the top players feature in the internationals, the more opportunity they have for rest in the season the better for home nation international prospects.
Tom's opinion was different. He felt this removed some of the magic of the Cup. The amateur and League 1 sides will miss out on opportunities to play against these top sides as they will already likely have been knocked out by the second tier clubs before the chance to be drawn against the best was reached.
We also had a bit of interaction on Twitter about this when the new structure was announced.
London Faithful @LondonFaithful @SuperLeaguePod I think they're just making it easier for the top teams to get to the final.
AntMack @AntMack76 @SuperLeaguePod just 3 games to get to the Final? Devalues the Challenge Cup a bit for me. Seems like its going to be even more weighted in favour of the bigger clubs.
Thats the opinions covered. Lets look at some facts and figures to see what they might tell us.
First of all, we'll start at the entry level with the clubs outside the professional and semi-professional ranks. From now on, 40 invited clubs from the amateur, student and wider European scene will be invited to Round 1 of the Cup - in recent years its been 44 teams, with a few also getting to join in Rounds 2 or 3 in different years. So yes, there is an entry level reduction of potential for real 'magic of the cup' ties.
Ultimately, in the most recent past 13 other clubs would get to join the 23 semi-professional Championship and Championship 1 clubs in Round 3, making up 36% of the round and seeing a slim chance to get to Round 4 where Super League clubs joined. Now 10 will get to Round 3, where the 14 League 1 clubs will join, a group that is likely to feature some famous names of former Cup winners (Swinton, Hunslet, Rochdale and Barrow all should feature in 2015 Round 3 for example). There will be less of them but they now make up 42% of the round, so in theory more chance for the other clubs to get a favourable draw to move on to Round 4.
The only thing then is Round 4 doesn't mean Super League clubs. It does however mean some more big names of previous winners (Bradford, Leigh and Halifax in 2015 for example). This round is made up of 50% of teams from the round before, so there is still a good chance of some romance with the lower tier clubs facing a reasonable chance of a favourable draw.
Then in Round 5 four Super League clubs enter. They only make up 25% of the round, so 75% of clubs still in from the Championship and below do face a chance of a magic day out at one of the top clubs in Round 6, and at least 4 will do so. That means at least 25% of Round 6 teams will be drawn from outside Super League, so a team like Keighley or Leigh still face a reasonable chance of making it to the quarter finals.
Tom is clearly right in that the path for the teams outside the semi-pro ranks to play a dream tie at a Wigan, Leeds or St Helens is even tougher now with the extra games they must face (although not impossible, if amateur clubs are drawn against each other through the first 5 rounds, for one to make it to Round 6).
It isn't conclusive though that there couldn't be magic ties featuring the Championship and potentially League 1 clubs by the time the very top sides enter the competition (if League 1 clubs get the most favourable draws, in theory six could make Round 5 and three Round 6 - it could even be one in the quarters where they would likely face a top top club).
Now, what about the business end where the winners are likely to come from? Well the first fact to note is the last time a winner came from outside the previous year's top 8 clubs was the 2010 Challenge Cup, won by Warrington who ended 2009 in 10th place - the caveat to that would have to be the Warrington club were the reigning Cup holders. Before that you have to go back to the 1986 Castleford team that finished 12th the previous championship season. Basically, it shows that the Cup winner has been likely to come from that top 8 the year before under the old format.
What about the old Round 5, that is sort of the new Round 6? Well, members of the previous year's top 8 teams have made up Round 5 spots 99 of 120 times over the last 15 seasons (82%). And, of those 21 times the top 8 side didn't make Round 5, on 16 occasions they only didn't do so because they lost to another top 8 team in Round 4 (76% of the time). In the other Round 4 games where a top 8 side played a non-top 8 side the average score was 49-11 to the top 8 side.
Whilst they do have to play one game less to potentially win the Cup, this evidence doesn't really suggest that extra game disadvantaged the top 8 sides over the recent past.
There you have it. What the RFL say, what SLP say, what some of our listeners have said and what the stats say. Get in touch with your say and hear more of our discussion on the New Era in Episode 28 of Super League Pod.
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